Why This Year Won’t Be the Warmest On Record

Scientists predict that 2025 will be the second or third warmest year on record. We’re emitting more CO2 every year, so why won’t this year be warmer than last year?

Even though Earth is warming over the long run, not every single year will be warmer than the one before it. That’s because natural climate patterns, like El Niño and La Niña, can give the planet little “boosts” or “breaks” from heat for a year or two. Right now, we’re experiencing La Niña conditions.

Here’s an easy way to think about it:

El Niño = temporary warming boost

During an El Niño, the trade winds relax, cutting off the supply of cool water to the sea surface. The Pacific Ocean releases the extra heat into the atmosphere. This makes global temperatures jump for a year or so. That’s why the warmest years on record usually happen during or right after a strong El Niño. This happens every three to seven years.

La Niña = temporary cooling dip

La Niña means “little girl” in Spanish, and it’s the opposite of El Niño. During La Niña, colder water rises to the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean. At the same time, the trade winds get even stronger and push warm water toward Asia. This brings extra-cold water up along the west coast of North and South America.

All that cold water helps cool the air, giving the planet a short-term cooling dip. That’s one reason this year won’t end up being the warmest on record.

La Niña also changes weather patterns. It shifts the jet stream farther north, which often brings dry weather and drought to the southern U.S., while the Pacific Northwest and parts of Canada can get heavy rain and flooding.

It can even affect hurricanes. La Niña conditions can make hurricane seasons in the Atlantic more active and more intense.

What’s the long-term trend?

The long-term trend is still rising, but it looks more like a staircase than a smooth ramp. ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) is like taking one step slightly down or slightly up, but the staircase still goes up overall. So the long-term pattern shows warming, but the year-to-year wiggles are normal.

Check out this page from NOAA for more details!

If you like this article, you will really like this one: La Niña Years—Our “Cool” Years—Are Now Warmer Than El Niño Years.