A Powerful El Niño Is Brewing—and Scientists Are Watching Closely

El Niño is a natural event where the surface water in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, near the equator, gets warmer than usual. This happens every few years, and it changes weather patterns all over the world — causing things like extra rain in some places, droughts in others, and shifts in temperature.

A Record-Breaking El Niño on the Rise

Scientists at NOAA say this year’s El Niño is growing fast and could become one of the strongest ever recorded since they started keeping track in 1950. There’s an 81% chance it will reach “very strong” status by fall.

This El Niño only started last month, but it’s already skipped past the “weak” stage and jumped to “moderate” — and it’s still getting stronger. Ocean temperatures in the Pacific are near record highs for this time of year. Part of the reason is that this El Niño is forming on top of oceans that are already warmer than normal because of human-caused climate change.

One scientist compared it to the huge El Niño of 1997–1998, which caused around 23,000 deaths from weather disasters and cost governments up to $45 billion. Some experts think this new one could be even stronger. However, scientists point out that because the world’s oceans are already warmer than they were in the 1990s, this El Niño might not cause the exact same effects as past ones — it could bring different or more intense surprises.

A few of the expected effects include:

Wetter winter in the southern U.S.

Warmer winter in the northern U.S. and Canada

Calmer hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean (El Niño usually makes hurricane season quieter)

Drier conditions in Indonesia

Possible record-breaking global temperatures in 2027, since El Niño releases stored-up ocean heat into the atmosphere

Bottom line:

This El Niño is heating up fast and could become one of the strongest on record. Scientists are watching closely because its effects on weather and temperatures could be significant — and possibly different from what’s happened in the past.

Want to dig even deeper? Check out La Niña Years—Our “Cool” Years—Are Now Warmer Than El Niño Years!